Disaster Preparedness

Discussion section for Everyday Carry items, Preparedness and Self Defense, including Knives, Packs, Filtration Systems, Bushcraft, etc.
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Weapon
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Disaster Preparedness

Post by Weapon » Thu Aug 23, 2018 5:41 am

While shows like "Doomsday Preppers" and the like tend to put forth some effort to make preppers look like some crazy fringe element of society, anyone who has ever been caught in even a moderately serious natural disaster knows how quickly you can find yourself in an incredibly bad situation.

While there is a ton of info online regarding disaster preparedness, the US government actually has some decent tips (it took them five days to get water to the Superdome even with the initial $10.4 billion aid package and 7,200 National Guard troops so a few additional tips is the least they could do...)

FEMA docs on preparedness: https://www.fema.gov/media-library/asse ... ments/7877
FEMA checklists and toolkits: https://www.fema.gov/preparedness-checklists-toolkits#

Ready.gov links...everything from active shooter (https://www.ready.gov/active-shooter) to nuclear explosions (https://www.ready.gov/nuclear-explosion)
main page: https://www.ready.gov/
Build a kit page - good info on items you may need but never considered: https://www.ready.gov/build-a-kit

Prepping for business owners: https://www.ready.gov/business
More tips from the US SBA: https://www.sba.gov/business-guide/mana ... mergencies

It sounds like a lot of paranoia? Odds of any person in this forum needing some of the above? 1 in 4.
Yeah, but when was the last time the world as we know it even came close to ending?? July 23, 2012.
They waited a year before really talking about how bad it would have been if it would have happened just one week earlier:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/cap ... 28b0616822

Snip from the 2014 article on NASA's page: "If an asteroid big enough to knock modern civilization back to the 18th century appeared out of deep space and buzzed the Earth-Moon system, the near-miss would be instant worldwide headline news. Two years ago, Earth experienced a close shave just as perilous, but most newspapers didn't mention it. The "impactor" was an extreme solar storm, the most powerful in as much as 150+ years.

"If it had hit, we would still be picking up the pieces," says Daniel Baker of the University of Colorado..."we need to be prepared."

Probability of a similarly massive CME hitting Earth in the next 10 year: 12%.
Worst case scenario according to the US government: virtually all modern technology rendered useless overnight, up to six years or more to rebuild the power grid with the potential loss of life being up to 290 million US citizens as a result of starvation, lack of clean running water, lack of medical treatment, lack of heating and cooling and rioting.

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Re: Disaster Preparedness

Post by Janik » Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:57 am

Good info, thanks for the post. Having been a soldier for many years, I tend to "prep" for scenarios that could occur in my area. Flooding, tornadoes, civil unrest and loss of job are my biggest concerns. Carrington/EMP are always a concern, but farther down on my list, such as an earthquake. We do have a fault line near our area that could potentially cause significant damage. I don't think a lot of people realize how quickly supplies will disappear in a natural disaster. I was watching the news last night and as the hurricane approaches Hawaii, they said the store shelves are empty of water, bread and other basic items. But as I get older, fear of an injury/loss of job are my more focused concerns now. It's good to have a few months supply of food just in case we fall on hard times.
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Re: Disaster Preparedness

Post by MadDuner » Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:35 am

The time to get things in order is RIGHT NOW!
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Re: Disaster Preparedness

Post by higgybaby » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:13 am

Yep..... be ready or be in a position to get ready quick. We have run from so many storms... we've become prepared wary.
Don't forget to keep some cash....and not in hundreds!

Edit: Since I moved into my newer home we rarely run anymore. This house is built to hurricane zone 1 specs. Its brick and I'm at 128 feet elevation. Water will not be a problem for me...but a tornado is a threat. However- we do "get ready "to go. Our thinking is that it will only be for a few days.
Loss of power for a 2 or 300 mile radius for an extended time would be real bad.....
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Re: Disaster Preparedness

Post by Weapon » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:59 am

I’ve been through a two week power loss in a fairly large area. To put it mildly, it sucked. Making coffee on top of a kerosene heater loses its amusement value quickly. Of course crime shot way up during that time as emergency services were busy dealing with every other kind of problem imaginable.

The one thing that seriously sucked about the Katrina response was they illegally disarmed everyone - even people just trying to lawfully defend their homes and businesses. The vast majority of those people never had their firearms returned to them including family heirlooms that were worth a fortune in several cases. Note to self: hidden storage with a gun or sixty and matching ammo hidden somewhere.
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Re: Disaster Preparedness

Post by Lgaam » Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:20 pm

Short term problems, up to about 4 weeks, we can bug in just fine. The biggest issue would be rationing fuel for the generator. Even have allowances for all the in-laws. Presuming there is still nominal Rule of Law. My power grid is a spur attached to a hospital and a fire station, so if there is infrastructure to be had, I won't be in the dark too long.

I'm looking to add another 250 gal water tank, but that might not happen before next hurricane season.
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Re: Disaster Preparedness

Post by MadDuner » Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:35 pm

A battery bank, inverter and a couple of solar panels go a long way towards limiting generator time.
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Re: Disaster Preparedness

Post by TL1000RSquid » Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:45 am

If I'm bugging in I'm in a pretty good position especially if I got some warning to top off all my vehicles/equipment and gas cans, along with extra water storage. Got enough food goods to go several weeks along with cases of bottled water. If I go conservative with running the generator sporadically I got enough propane to keep it going for quite awhile.
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Re: Disaster Preparedness

Post by Weapon » Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:50 am

One mistake people should seriously consider working hard to avoid is advertising their preps on anything resembling a local level. In fact, not speaking about them at all to the greatest extent possible might well be the best plan. I have noticed that many people who even ridicule any type of prepping always have a fall back plan of just showing up on someone else’s doorstep “if things ever get really bad”. Ummm....sorry but this stuff is time comsuming, takes up lots of space and is typically damn expensive just to half way cover what the people living under the roof might need for bare minimum survival. Obviously, you help out who you can but if everyone you know is aware of a stockpile of supplies at your house and things do in fact go bad, everyone you know (including that jackass at work who won’t even take the time to start another pot off coffee when he takes the last cup at 9:05am) will be who shows up on your doorstep. You might well end up with a bit of a mob demanding your supplies instead of politely asking for them.

The Bug-out vs Bug-In Debate
I think bugging in is the best option unless something makes that almost impossible. Bugging out presents dozens of problems that most people never consider. They look at it almost like it is a casual camping trip.

The short list of problems with bugging out:
- You have to have someplace to bugout to which has shelter and supplies...otherwise, you are just out there with your cheese in the wind. “But when I get there I can set up camp in the woods and hunt and (insert a long list of delusional nonsense from movies like “Red Dawn” here).”
- Even if you have a bug out location that has shelter and some supplies, you still have to get from point A (where you are) to point B (bugout location). If people are desperate and/or panicking, the trip from point A to point B, which seems like a walk in the park under normal circumstances, may turn into the most hazardous journey imaginable. What if your vehicle breaks down? What if roads are flooded or bridges are out? What if that Mohawk dude on the motorcycle with the mini crossbow lashed his arm shows up (“The Road Warrior” reference is irresistible)?? What if you get to point B and it is under water or has been raided by people you blabbed to about it at that office party a few months back?
Bugging out is risky as you will likely encounter problems your Swiss Army knife does not have a gadget to fix.
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Re: Disaster Preparedness

Post by Janik » Fri Aug 24, 2018 7:01 am

Weapon wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:50 am
One mistake people should seriously consider working hard to avoid is advertising their preps on anything resembling a local level.
Yup. But since I'm bugging out to your place, I'll just assume you'll share your preps. :)
But seriously, I don't know how many times people who know I own a couple firearms have said "I'll just come to your place". Lol, whatever dude. If the S hits the Fan and you aren't family, or someone that has something valuable to offer, your on your own. I'm not much of a prepper, just more into being prepared. But what I do have is for family and close friends.
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Re: Disaster Preparedness

Post by ncjw » Fri Aug 24, 2018 7:34 am

So I have thought about this quite a bit. Firstly, the threat of a massive solar flare is real, but rare and impossible to predict. An EMP attack from a rogue nation is more likely but would only hit about a third of the US and the rest of the US would step in fairly quickly and restore supply lines. A coordinated EMP attack would be the start of WWIII and it would be unlikely that I would be here, being close to a city. A coordinated EMP attack without a follow up conventional nuke attack/retaliation or the solar flare scenario would almost certainly mean the death of at least a third of the US via starvation within a month. People have no idea how the economy works with a short "just in time" logistical system. Your typical grocery store (without panic buying) sells everything in the store every two weeks and much more often for some goods.

It would hit the coasts the hardest since the proximity to food vs the population density is the worst. But CA has the Imperial Valley and the east coast has farms within 60 miles or so to sustain some people if they can get there. The problem is that the EMPs/solar flare would blow up the transformers on the power lines and the gas stations wouldn't have the power to pump (let alone refine). Unlike the movies, your cars and PC's would still work until they ran out of stored energy. Cell phones and the internet would not be able to connect to anything. Radio would work until their stored energy ran out.

So if you live in flyover country, you may be close enough to farms and water that it won't matter. If you live in suburbia like I do, bugging out to a farm owned by a very good friend is an option, but impossible for everybody. (And congrats, you will now be a manual labor farm hand and security guard for the foreseeable future, but it beats starving.)

BO in place and buying the standard year's supply of packaged food from Costco is an option, but then what do you do when your neighbors and friends that you have known for decades come to your door starving and asking for food (whether they know about your stores or not)?

No matter if you bug in or out, you would need to team with some other people to defend what you have. You can't defend 24/7 by yourself and you can't defend against a band or mob by yourself.

Civilization would eventually start to self organize again and maybe other countries will provide aid, but it will take a lot of time. It would be a series of very difficult questions until then.

(BTW, our government has known about the solar flare/EMP issue for decades and has decided not to spend any money on protecting our power grid, particularly the transformers. Insert your favorite "instead of ____" ridiculously wasteful spending initiative here.)
Last edited by ncjw on Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Disaster Preparedness

Post by MadDuner » Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:22 am

If you can survive for 60 days on your own stored prep - the competition for resources will be greatly diminished at that point. Whether it's food, water, fuel or ammo - no matter where you are, you can expect hungry and desperate people to be actively seeking whatever YOU have. They will not be kind. They will not be pleasant. They will not be asking. They will be relentless. You will either defend what you have - and possibly die in the process, or die hungry anyway after you let the mob take it all.

You will need to be part of a team.
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Re: Disaster Preparedness

Post by Lgaam » Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:37 am

MadDuner wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:35 pm
A battery bank, inverter and a couple of solar panels go a long way towards limiting generator time.
I'm looking at that. I've got a couple portable panels for small electronics. I'd only need about 3 hours in 24 to keep my freezer cold and my water tanks topped off. Full out, I've got enough generator to run everything but the A/C, or the A/C and almost nothing else.
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Re: Disaster Preparedness

Post by ncjw » Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:55 am

And oh yeah, some silver and gold might not be a bad idea.
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Re: Disaster Preparedness

Post by Weapon » Fri Aug 24, 2018 2:57 pm

ncjw wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:55 am
And oh yeah, some silver and gold might not be a bad idea.
Brass and copper coated lead might have higher trade value. :) Hard liquor and Xanax would likely be in high demand as well. :))

Before I forget to go back to it, EMP is not my primary concern (even if a 12% chance is fairly spooky, we are technically overdue for a massive solar storm and modern circuits are several thousand times more susceptible to EMP than the tech that was floating around when Starfish Prime was tested). As for man-made EMPs, rogue states (hopefully) will not get their mitts on a megaton class nuke anytime soon but a one megaton nuke detonated at ~380km altitude over of the central US would pretty much wipe out all modern tech from coast to coast. If the initial pulse doesn’t immediately destroy all electronics, they would fail a short time later due to degradation of capacitors, copper windings and so on.

The CMEs that blew by in 2012 were likely capable of producing megaton-grade EMP levels on a global scale and that is truly terrifying, worst case scenario stuff. So, why talk about it? For starters, it is ALWAYS a fun smartass answer to give anyone who thinks any type of disaster preparedness is based in paranoia. When was the last time the world as we know it almost ended? 2012 was uncomfortably close to it and no one had a clue it was coming or that it even blew by.

Anyway, earthquakes, hurricanes, tsunamis, financial breakdowns and general political/civil unrest cause enough problems without even thinking about all the fun things the universe has to throw at us (btw, there is a nice planet smacker asteroid that will be zipping by at around 5 million miles away from Earth in a few days - it’s estimated to be about the size of the Great Pyramid and it’s moving at about 20,000km/hour or so...it would leave a helluva dent).

If nothing else, trying to figure out exactly what you would need to survive in those types of situations is a good mental exercise. If you can nail down a plan for long term scenarios that would actually work, then you pretty much have all the lesser disasters covered. The only ones that would still be entirely hopeless are the true planet killers (cosmic gamma ray bursts, rogue black holes, super massive asteroids and that type of thing) and there really is no point in worrying about those.
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Re: Disaster Preparedness

Post by Weapon » Fri Aug 24, 2018 3:04 pm

Janik wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 7:01 am
Weapon wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:50 am
One mistake people should seriously consider working hard to avoid is advertising their preps on anything resembling a local level.
Yup. But since I'm bugging out to your place, I'll just assume you'll share your preps. :)
But seriously, I don't know how many times people who know I own a couple firearms have said "I'll just come to your place". Lol, whatever dude. If the S hits the Fan and you aren't family, or someone that has something valuable to offer, your on your own. I'm not much of a prepper, just more into being prepared. But what I do have is for family and close friends.
Lol - yeah - the “I am coming to your place if SHTF” line comes up a lot. Oddly enough, many people who are big advocates of gun control seem to like the idea that they could always just borrow one of my guns if they really, really needed one. Ummmm...no. If you don’t want guns around before the zombies show up you get to suck it up and deal with them with a machete or bat. :D

We are actually not that far apart....maybe we need to start scouting property in the boonies for the fortified compound. =))
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Re: Disaster Preparedness

Post by ncjw » Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:28 pm

I actually know of a family in a SE state that has a compound already set up with plain old everyday metal structures filled to the brim with supplies from food to hospital equipment to a blacksmith setup. Within a hour or so drive or couple day walk for everyone in the family. Some people take this very seriously and I cannot argue with them. But that takes a lot of resources and for most of the folks to be on the same page, this is not easy.

As far as asteroids, we know where the big ones are and 5M miles not even a close call, space is a very big thing. Even in the asteroid belt, each asteroid, large to tiny, is over a half millions miles from each other. Out of solar system asteroids are extremely rare. Comets are another thing, we don't know where all of the big ones are there.

Anyway, I am much more concerned about human caused disasters than natural ones.
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Re: Disaster Preparedness

Post by Janik » Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:56 pm

Weapon wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 3:04 pm
We are actually not that far apart....maybe we need to start scouting property in the boonies for the fortified compound
Lol yah, we can meet in the middle. Actually, there's some areas North of you that would be really good. I may be actually heading down there this Fall to try out some off road trails. There's some popular off road areas there.
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Re: Disaster Preparedness

Post by LT USN (Ret.) » Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:59 pm

Weapon wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:50 am
I think bugging in is the best option unless something makes that almost impossible.
I'm a "bug in" kind of guy. If the SHTF really bad, where would we go? I have walked the Mrs. throughout the house showing her the least/most defensible positions in the house. Hint: Don't come down my driveway unannounced...
Weapon wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 2:57 pm
Brass and copper coated lead might have higher trade value. :) Hard liquor and Xanax would likely be in high demand as well.
SNAP! Concur on both.

You can get a 5-gallon bucket lid at Academy for the more, "basic needs" of the human endeavor. Got a roll of 1000 plastic bags next to it and TP; a human necessity. I also has water bladders that fit in the tub (Google it). Throw them in the tub, hook they up to the faucet and magic! POT Water. I have some interesting thoughts for the in-ground pool too. :AR!

I'm a Katrina survivor; saw some interesting stuff. And I wasn't in the floor area, no power two weeks and no phone for 4 months. Couldn't move much for a month. Not looking forward to very doing that again.
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Re: Disaster Preparedness

Post by Janik » Fri Aug 24, 2018 6:47 pm

LT USN (Ret.) wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:59 pm
I also has water bladders that fit in the tub (Google it).
I've been thinking of getting one of those. We have a one bathroom home, so I only need one. But then, I suppose I could fill a couple up in the backyard with the garden hose and try to conceal them. Keep the one in the tub for drinking water, and the two in the yard for washing and other necessities.
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